Madman's Blog

What are you talking about? By the way, welcome back! I haven't seen you in awhile.

What the economy? More detail plox!

Oh well, i had been posting quite a lot of news regarding the utter collapse of the worlds financial system throughout 2006 here in my blog, but noone seemed to read it. About the real estate bubble and such. Maybe GameCop remembers? Then i thought it would be possible. But today... It happens at this very moment. Anyway, things are accelerating quickly. Bernanke announced upcoming bank failures today.The dollar is going to hell. Faennie Mae and Freddie Mac announced huge losses. Here in germany we have 3-5 banks on the verge of collapse actually. Australia, England banks have huge losses. Real estate bubbles in England, Spain, Ireland and eastern europe about to pop. etc etc etc. Too much to name it all.If you want to stay informed i suggest 3 links:http://www.jsmineset.com/

You are LIVING THROUGH AND EXPERIENCING FINANCIAL MARKET HISTORY right here and right now. We will be telling our kids and grandkids about this in the years ahead. Fortunes are going to be both made and lost. Be wise and don’t become a victim.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Citigroup VIEs Raise Question Of Solvency

http://leap2020.eu/

September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy

Maybe im just freaking out, but all the news lately make me feel concerned about the situation,and maybe just 1 person reads this and reacts and prepares himself.Bloomberg: Banks Lose to Deadbeat Homeowners as Loans Sold in Bonds VanishFirst city bankrupt:NBC: City Leaders Scramble To Save Vallejo From Bankruptcy

I want to keep in touch and all, but I really don't know how, or where to begin to understand the economy? I'm taking the course in High School, but crap, it's in America, the guy cares more about his business then the flocking students

Well, you gotta start reading about it. Then you will learn.Crappy statement this is, i know. But its that way with all things.The main thing you need to know is summed up quickly:Subprime debt has been cut up into strange papers and sold all over the world. These strange papers then got cut up again into even more strange papers and sold over the world. Repeat this process. Mix in other strange papers. Then you have that alphabetical soup you read about everywhere. ABS, ABC, CDO, LBO, SIV, VIE and alike. Doesnt matter really. The problem is threefold:1) The ammount of these derivatives is about 12 Trillion dollars.2) Every financial institution on this planet seems to have bought this crap. Your city. Your pensionfund. etc. They were fine, as they thought this was like "real" money they could sell on the market at any given time for the price they paid for it.3) Last summer, Bear Stearns tried to sell some. Noone wanted to buy it. Now they found out its worth nothing.Since then, the financial market is in deep deep trouble. Its in no way "contained". And while Bernanke may consider a recession by now, making his statements just a few months ago a farce,a Depression is in fact the best possible outcome.Normally, as you may have noted on the press, banks try to auction the houses when the owner goes into default. Problem is, as these papers have been cut and mixed a dozend times, the banks can not even proof they own a particular house, so they cannot auction it. Courts have decided so in different countries. This makes these papers even more worthless to the market.But hey, its all fine, the monoline insurers like Ambac, MBIA and alike insured these papers against defaulting. So there is still the hypothetical ammount the insurers will pay for such a paper if it defaults.Unfortunately, the insurers have like cash of 2 billion dollars, while they insured papers worth about 12 billion dollars. You do the math here.Thats why there is so much fuss about the monoline insurers lately.Today Warren Buffet announced, he will not jump in to support the monoliners with his money. So they will go bust soon.So in sum, derivates worth about 12 Trillion dollars will go bust soon. This, most likely, will push the world into a hyperinflationary depression like 1929ff. You probably noted rising consumer prices in the press allready.Only problem is, this time it will be worldwide. Australia, Japan, England, Europe and other countries allready suffer from the financial crisis. And keep in mind, that there are even more subprime bubbles in other countries like England, Spain and others. Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'Well, thats about it. I just thought i'd raise my voice once again as things become visible now to the people in the street. This is supposed to be tapping on your shoulder, pointing you to something, that may affect our lives the next years. The ugly way. Wether you find it worth looking into and take additional steps is up to you. Oh almost forgot: Another worthy link is http://www.dollarcollapse.com/

Lol where do I start reading?Damn man, if were heading towards another great depression, craps going to get bad . Why was I born in this generation?

- Bens plan to save the primary dealers with a $200 billion injenction failed, to say the least.- Hedge Fonds, like CCC and the others and their brethren will now collapse.- That is why Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae "papers" will collapse, an estimated value of $4500 billion.Lets see what Paulson comes up with. I bet he has a plan.

Lipsky speechIMF Urges Action to Strengthen Global Financial SystemBy IMF Survey onlineMarch 12, 2008 * Risks of further escalation of crisis rising * Decisive action needed to put global financial system on firmer footing * First priority to reverse spreading strains in global financial markets The IMF called for "decisive policy action" to strengthen the global financial system, buffeted by fallout from the subprime crisis, noting that authorities worldwide must also "think the unthinkable" so that they can better anticipate and react to potential global economic risks."By now, there is little doubt that risks of further escalation of this crisis are rising and decisive policy action will be required to put the global financial system and global economy on a firmer footing," said John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF)."The first priority must be to reverse the spreading strains in global financial markets, and to restore the normal functioning of the financial system in advanced economies," he stated in an address at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC."The actions taken yesterday [March 11]," Lipsky added, "by several central banks are helpful, as they reflect a recognition of this critical need to assure market liquidity."Review of IMF thinkingLipsky's speech "Dealing with the Financial Turmoil: Contingent Risks, Policy Challenges, and the Role of the IMF," outlines current IMF thinking on global economic and financial developments with the aim of focusing public attention on the importance of policy makers and regulators in advanced, emerging and developing countries taking steps to guard against contingent risks that could further deepen already significant policy challenges.Though advanced economies are taking steps in the right direction, integration of financial markets globally implies more rapid and potent spillovers to other economies, Lipsky warned. Policy actions worldwide, so far, "may not prove to be adequate" to deal with the "low probability but high impact events" that may materialize and undermine global financial stability. "Policymakers as a matter of course need to `think the unthinkable,' and to consider how they would plan to react if contingencies arise. The need to prepare systematically for potential risks has been demonstrated amply during the past few months."Lipsky pointed to the potential for a "global financial decelerator" that could amplify the impact of financial turmoil on the real economy."A downward credit spiral, driven by rising defaults or margin calls that forces asset sales even as the value of collateral deteriorates could produce new rounds of deleveraging and asset price deflation," he explained.The senior IMF official underscored the role of the IMF in the current global environment, noting that that Fund has the expertise to help countries determine whether they have space for countercyclical policies. "At the IMF, we are giving serious thought to what can be done if contingent risks materialize," he said, adding that "we are using our expertise and many years of experience in helping our member countries weather crises to think about what policies might prove most effective."[...]http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey.../NEW031208A.htmEmergency funding for BearPublished: March 14 2008 14:05 | Last updated: March 14 2008 16:50Confidence in Bear Stearns collapsed on Friday after the US investment bank said it had arranged for an unspecified amount of emergency funding from JP Morgan and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York because its liquidity position had “significantly deteriorated”.In early New York trading, Bear Stearns shares plunged as much as 50 per cent, pulling the rest of the US stock market down. The shares have been hammered by concerns about the bank’s liquidity and had fallen more than 30 per cent this week alone in highly volatile trading.[...]Executives have tried to dismiss rumours buzzing around the industry, insisting that Bear has have plenty of cash on the balance sheet and should meet analyst expectations, which have been adjusted dramatically lower. “Our balance sheet has not weakened at all,” Alan Schwartz, president and chief executive, said on Thursday. “We don’t see any pressure on our liquidity.”But in the last days, investors have grown increasingly worried about the investment bank’s exposure to Carlyle Capital and other troubled investment funds. Specifically, there were concerns that if Bear had to seize collateral in the form of mortgage-backed securities from Carlyle and other funds, it might then have trouble selling these assets, leading to further losses and write-downs.On Friday Mr Schwartz said in a statement that the bank’s liquidity had ”significantly deteriorated” in the last 24 hours.[...]http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43697fa6-f1cb-11...?nclick_check=1

I had read your earlier blog entries, but there was nothing to add. Not sure where those earlier blogs went. Also you had forecast the crash to happen last April, which wasn't quite true - although the signs had been there for a long time.

Yeah that is indeed a problem, forecasting is difficult. They come up with all sorts of (illegal) tricks.(BTW its not me that forecasted this, i just did the copy n paste trick BTW i deleted the old postings for the lack of interest. Looks like RL draw some attention to this prob now.)Anyway, things started in autumn, so thats just a few months off what people forecasted. But if you dont see by now, whats coming up, you msut have 2 eyes missing. At least. Today Bernanke told us, that the Bear Stearn incidence would have been "it".The guys at leap see "it" happening in the 2nd half this year.http://leap2020.eu/European-real-estate-in...83d14454f3e4fe6Also by now UKs and Spains subprime bubble pops. Not to mention Italy.Take precautions.

Australia's banks seem to be fine, so far.We've had no collapses of anything of significance.